Author: Jonathan Tannen

library(tidyverse)
library(sf)

source("../../admin_scripts/util.R")


setwd("C:/Users/Jonathan Tannen/Dropbox/sixty_six/posts/council_ballot_position_23/")
df_major <- readRDS("../../data/processed_data/df_major_type_20220523.Rds")
ballot_position <- read.csv("../../data/processed_data/ballot_layout.csv")

Encoding(ballot_position$candidate) <- "latin1"
ballot_position$candidate <- gsub("\\s+", " ", ballot_position$candidate)

format_name <- function(x){
  x <- tolower(x)
  x <- gsub("(\\b)([a-z])", "\\1\\U\\2", x, perl=TRUE)
  x <- gsub("(á|ñ|ó)([A-Z]+)", "\\1\\L\\2", x, perl=TRUE)
  x <- gsub("\\s+", " ", x)
  x <- gsub("(^\\s)|(\\s$)", "", x)
  return(x)
}

council <- df_major %>% 
  filter(
    election_type == "primary",
      party == "DEMOCRATIC",
      office == "COUNCIL AT LARGE",
      year %in% c(2011, 2015, 2019)
  ) %>%
  mutate(year = as.integer(year))

council <- council %>% 
  left_join(ballot_position, by = c("year" = "year", "candidate" = "candidate"))

council$candidate <- factor(council$candidate)
levels(council$candidate) <- format_name(levels(council$candidate))
council <- council %>% filter(candidate != 'Write In')

council <- council %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  mutate(ncand = length(unique(candidate)))

total_results <- council %>%
  group_by(candidate, year, row, column, ncand, incumbent) %>%
  summarise(votes = sum(votes)) %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  mutate(
    pvote = votes/sum(votes),
    winner = rank(desc(votes)) <= 5
  )

YEAR <- 2019
ggplot(
  total_results %>% 
    filter(year == YEAR) %>% 
    mutate(
      lastname=format_name(gsub(".*\\s(\\S+)$", "\\1", candidate)),
      lastname=ifelse(lastname == "Jr",format_name(gsub(".*\\s(\\S+\\s\\S+)$", "\\1", candidate)),lastname),
    ) %>%
    arrange(votes),
  aes(y=row, x=column)
) +
  geom_tile(
    aes(fill=pvote*100, color=winner),
    size=2
  ) +
  geom_text(
    aes(
      label = ifelse(incumbent==1, "Incumbent", ""),
      x=column-0.45,
      y=row+0.45
    ),
    color="grey70",
    hjust=0, vjust=0
  ) +
  geom_text(
    aes(label = sprintf("%s\n%0.1f%%", lastname, 100*pvote)),
    color="black"
    # fontface="bold"
  ) +
  scale_y_reverse(NULL) +
  scale_x_continuous(NULL)+
  scale_fill_viridis_c(guide=FALSE) +
  scale_color_manual(values=c(`FALSE`=rgb(0,0,0,0), `TRUE`="yellow"), guide=FALSE) +
  expand_limits(x=3.5)+
  theme_sixtysix() %+replace% 
  theme(
    panel.grid.major=element_blank(),
    axis.text=element_blank()
  ) +
  ggtitle(
    paste(YEAR, "Council At Large Results"),
    "Democratic Primary, arranged by the ballot layout. Winners are outlined."
  )

ggplot(
  total_results,
  aes(y = 100 * pvote, color = interaction(incumbent, column==1))
) + 
  geom_text(
    aes(label = candidate),
    x=0, 
    hjust=0
  ) +
  facet_grid(. ~ year) +
  theme_sixtysix() +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0,20,2.5)) +
  geom_text(
    data = tribble(
      ~votes, ~candidate, ~incumbent, ~year, ~pvote, ~column,
      # 1e3, "Challenger", 0, 2011, -0.007, 0,
      7e3, "Incumbent", 1, 2011, 0.007, 0,
      4e3, "First Column", 0, 2011, 0.000, 1
    ),
    fontface="bold",
    x=0.45,
    aes(label = candidate),
    hjust = 0,
    vjust=0
  ) +
  scale_color_manual(
    values=c(
      '1.FALSE' = strong_blue, 
      '1.TRUE' = strong_blue, 
      '0.FALSE'= "black", 
      '0.TRUE'=strong_green
    ),
    guide = FALSE
  ) +
  expand_limits(y=0) +
  labs(
    title="Incumbents Swept 2011 and 2019, but not 2015",
    y = "% of Vote"
  )

ols_fit <- lm(
  100 * pvote ~ 
    as.character(year) +
    incumbent +
    (row == 1) +
    (column == 1) + 
    # (column == 1 & row == 1) +
    # (column == 1 & row != 1) +
    # (column == 2) +
    1,
  data = total_results #%>% filter(!incumbent)
)
# summary(ols_fit)

print_coef <- function(fit, coef){
  val <- round(ols_fit$coefficients[coef], 1)
  se <- summary(ols_fit)$coefficients[,2][coef]
  # stars <- case_when(p<0.01 ~ " (p < 0.01)", p < 0.05 ~ " (p < 0.05)", TRUE ~ "")
  se_text <- paste0(" (",round(se, 1),")")
  prefix <- (if(val > 0) "+" else "")
  paste0(prefix, val, se_text)
}

tribble(
  ~Effect, ~"% Vote in pp (standard error)",
  "Baseline Votes 2019", "2.6",
  "Incumbency", ols_fit %>% print_coef('incumbent'),
  "First Column",  ols_fit %>% print_coef('column == 1TRUE'),
  "First Row",  ols_fit %>% print_coef('row == 1TRUE')
) %>% 
  knitr::kable("html") %>% 
  kableExtra::kable_styling(full_width = F)