Posted on November 4, 2020November 6, 2020 by Jonathan TannenTwo quick thoughts Reposting two twitter posts here that I think are interesting. Ok, my *favorite* plots.The results can change either because preferences change or turnout changes. We can decompose the results into changes in each.If we held turnout constant from 2016, and just changed the county-level preferences, Biden would be up 4.1% from 2016. pic.twitter.com/UfpkoUkZx7— Sixty-Six Wards (@sixtysixwards) November 4, 2020 Notice these add up to a +2.4D change from 2016. Trump won by 0.7pp, so that yields the 1.7pp eventual D win that nytimes is showing.— Sixty-Six Wards (@sixtysixwards) November 4, 2020 If we held preferences constant and just changed turnout, Trump would be up 1.7% from 2016. pic.twitter.com/xtmCyDIeK4— Sixty-Six Wards (@sixtysixwards) November 4, 2020 And so much of it looks like a student effect (though maybe not all). To be clear, this would just mean those votes were showing up elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/9YIjPzlSe5— Sixty-Six Wards (@sixtysixwards) November 6, 2020 Related