Tomorrow is the special election to replace Tim Murphy in the House of Representatives. Since I’ve got the machinery to analyze districts, I thought I’d prep some maps to see what to expect. The election will be held using the old districts, not the Supreme Court’s new districts, and in any other year the Republican would almost certainly win. Donald Trump carried it by 19.5% just 20 months ago. The district ran 18.8 percentage points more Republican than the state in 2016 and 18.3 in 2014. But recent polls imply that this race is close. I’m not going to narrate, but thought I’d share the plots I made for myself.
